Bird Flu Five Mutations Away From Global Threat

The deadly H5N1 avian influenza is a mere five genetic mutations away from becoming a highly contagious virus, according to a new study that investigated the risk that the virus poses to the world.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza -- a common strain of bird flu -- was first identified in humans 17 years ago, and has resulted in approximately 650 reported cases of human infections with a 60 percent death rate, according to the Los Angeles Times. The H10N8 and H7N9 strains have recently proved more deadly in comparison to the H5N1 strain, but have so-far proven less likely to infect human being.

However according to a recent study published in the scientific journal Cell, H5N1 poses a significant risk to humanity, as it is already well adapted to infect human beings, and only lacks an deficient way to be made contagious.

According to Dutch researchers who investigated how close the virus really is to achieving this threatening goal, the virus only needs to go through five specific mutations before it can become a highly contagious airborne sickness.

To determine this, the researchers exposed ferrets to variations of the H5N1 virus that had been forced to mutate in a controlled lab environment. Ferrets were able to serve as a proper stand-in for human subject because the ferret immune system reportedly responds much like the human immune system does to avian influenza.

Infected ferrets were then placed in cages with unaffected ferrets. The cages were designed to prevent the ferrets from making physical contact, but promoted the share of airflow. After each instance of exposure, the researcher would test the unaffected ferrets for signs of the virus in order to confirm if the virsu had become contagiously airborne.

In an alarmingly short amount of time -- a mere five mutations -- the virus was being spread by sneezing, coughing, and even breathing along between ferrets,

According to the authors of the study, this does not necessarily mean that were are doomed to face an inevitable pandemic of the H5N1 virus. Mutations in nature are unpredictable, and the required five may never occur. Still, the researchers write that their findings indicate that a pandemic is certainty a possibility, and the virus should be closely monitored for signs that it is beginning to meet the requirements that will make it airborne.

The study was published in Cell on April 10. 

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