Lack of Tobacco Control Will Cost China Millions of Lives

China's continued lack of tobacco product control will cost them tens-of-millions of lives in the years to come, according to a new study published by the British Medical Journal.

According to the study, if the Chinese government were to finally implement commonly used tobacco sale and regulation policies, nearly 13 million smoking-related deaths could be prevented.

Researchers reached this conclusion after assessing the trend of smoking related deaths between 1996-2010. Using fertility and mortality rates of Chinese citizens between the ages of 12 and 74 provided by the United Nations, the researchers predicted past smoking rates. Then using this data in a specially designed computer program, the researchers were able to project future status-quo smoking rates among Chinese citizens. Currently, a staggering 51 percent of males, adolescents to seniors,  currently smoke in China. The numbers for women are much better -- only about 2 percent -- but increase among older women. The predicted data indicated that if stricter tobacco polices are not put in place, these rates will barely change in the coming decades.

However, using the same data, researchers also compared projected smoking rates if World Health Organization (WHO) tobacco policy recommendations were immediately implemented. What they found was encouraging, with a smoking prevalence of only 46 percent in males by 2050 and a drop to about 1 percent in women. The study showed that this decline in smoking rates would lead to a prevention of 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and over 150 million life years lost by 2050.

The study indicated that taxation of tobacco products is one of the most important policies linked to a decline in smoking, as each pack of cigarettes would become markedly more expensive for the average consumer. Unfortunately, China currently only lightly taxes tobacco products on a producer level, leaving the retail price remarkably low, compared to other countries who follow WHO policy recommendations.

The researchers note that if China were to finally implement even a portion of the WHO recommended policies, they would save tens-of-millions of lives in the approaching decades.

The study was published in the British Medical Journal on February 18.