Inevitable Shortage of Cancer Doctors by 2030: Report

Growing numbers of new cancer patients will overwhelm the United State's supply of oncologists by 2030, according to a recent statistical report.

The report, recently released by the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), provides evidence that indicates that within the next 16 years the number of new cancer cases is expected to increase by nearly 45 percent.

Currently, the United States sees more than 1.6 million cases of cancer annually. The American Cancer Society estimated that 2014 will see an estimated 585,720 deaths linked to a cancer diagnosis, making cancer the second most frequent cause of death in the U.S., second only to heart disease. However, the new ASCO Report claims that by 2030, the U.S. will being seeing 2.3 million annual cases of cancer. The associated death rate, if unchanged, will make cancer the leading cause of death in the country.

The spike in cancer cases will also cause a shortage of accredited oncologists. According to the report, it has been estimated that by 2025, patients in need of cancer care will increase by 42 percent, but unfortunately, the supply of certified oncologists in the U.S. is only expected to grow by 28 percent. The result? Each year following 2025, more than 400,000 Americans in need of cancer care will have difficulty receiving it.

So why is this happening? The ASCO report claims that one of the driving forces behind a shortage in doctors will be the fact that doctors are retiring. In 2008, the population of oncologists older than 64 exceeded the population of doctors younger than 40 for the first time in decades. The rate at which new oncologists are graduating college has remained about the same as it was years ago, but the rate at which old oncologists are retiring is increasing as more of the larger generations slip into retirement ages.

Worse of all, with the ever-increasing cost of cancer care, many small-time clinics are closing or merging across the nation are decreasing the number of job opportunities for younger doctors overall. According to the report, local cancer-care practices located mostly in the South and West serve more than a third of the nation's cancer patients, yet by 2030, nearly two-thirds of those practices are expected to merge or close, creating travel and cost burdens for patients that may disrupt needed care.

Still, not everything is bad news. It should be noted that these estimates are based off the current rate at which cancer has been diagnosed in patients. Experts suggest that within the last few years some cancers have been grossly over-diagnosed. Another factor potentially not considered in this report is the rate at which the medical community has been discovering treatment and preventative options for cancer. It may be that by 2030, a massive number of U.S. citizens will be diagnosed with cancer, but that may not necessarily mean the death rates will also be morbidly high.

The State of Cancer Care in America report was released by the American Society of Clinical Oncology.